Walk-forward strategy performance
All time 1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years
Every strategy was re-run draw by draw across the 5,483 archive drawings (2021-08-28 → 2026-08-29) using only prior data — no lookahead. Payout table at $0.25 per family per drawing: distinct $37.50 / double $75.00 / triple $225.00 / .
What "plays" means. One play = one $0.25 bet on one boxed family for one drawing.
Total plays = families played per drawing × drawings — e.g. a strategy that plays
5 families every drawing across
5,483 drawings accumulates
27,415 plays.
Every single play is settled against an actual archived drawing, and every hit is listed with its date in each
strategy's detail below — nothing here is estimated or modeled.
| Strategy | Families/draw | Drawings | Total plays | Hits | Hit rate | Cost | Gross | Net | ROI | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed Five Families | 5.0 | 5,483 | 27,415 | 214 | 0.78% | $6,853.75 | $8,025 | $1,171.25 | 17.1% | $-525 |
| Fixed 137 (Frozen 2025-26 List) | 137.0 | 5,483 | 751,171 | 4,134 | 0.55% | $187,792.75 | $177,600 | $-10,192.75 | -5.4% | $-13,049.25 |
| Fixed 40 Doubles (Frozen 2026 List) | 40.0 | 5,483 | 219,320 | 701 | 0.32% | $54,830 | $52,575 | $-2,255 | -4.1% | $-6,570 |
| 789 Portfolio (51 fixed) | 51.0 | 5,483 | 279,633 | 852 | 0.30% | $69,908.25 | $67,200 | $-2,708.25 | -3.9% | $-3,868.5 |
| 789 Top 10 (of the 51) | 10.0 | 5,483 | 54,830 | 153 | 0.28% | $13,707.5 | $12,375 | $-1,332.5 | -9.7% | $-1,702.5 |
| Followed-By Chain (book) | 1.8 | 5,483 | 9,966 | 51 | 0.51% | $2,491.5 | $2,062.5 | $-429 | -17.2% | $-470.75 |
| Cici's Rules Engine | 7.8 | 4,701 | 36,667 | 186 | 0.51% | $9,166.75 | $9,000 | $-166.75 | -1.8% | $-453.75 |
| Followed-By (empirical top 5) | 5.0 | 5,483 | 27,415 | 182 | 0.66% | $6,853.75 | $7,462.5 | $608.75 | 8.9% | $-240 |
| Hot Families (top 10) | 10.0 | 5,483 | 54,830 | 338 | 0.62% | $13,707.5 | $12,675 | $-1,032.5 | -7.5% | $-1,312.5 |
| Cold/Due Families (bottom 10) | 10.0 | 5,483 | 54,830 | 114 | 0.21% | $13,707.5 | $11,850 | $-1,857.5 | -13.6% | $-2,677.5 |
| Hot doubles (top 18) | 18.0 | 5,483 | 98,694 | 279 | 0.28% | $24,673.5 | $20,925 | $-3,748.5 | -15.2% | $-4,210.5 |
| Overdue 10 (gap vs expectation) | 10.0 | 5,483 | 54,830 | 224 | 0.41% | $13,707.5 | $11,400 | $-2,307.5 | -16.8% | $-2,962.5 |
| Profit Persisters (top 18, 1y window) | 18.0 | 5,483 | 98,694 | 289 | 0.29% | $24,673.5 | $22,575 | $-2,098.5 | -8.5% | $-2,668.5 |
| Profit Persisters (top 18, 2y window) | 18.0 | 5,483 | 98,694 | 370 | 0.37% | $24,673.5 | $21,150 | $-3,523.5 | -14.3% | $-3,523.5 |
| Profit Leaders (top 10, 90d window) | 10.0 | 5,483 | 54,830 | 195 | 0.36% | $13,707.5 | $12,675 | $-1,032.5 | -7.5% | $-1,545 |
| Profit Leaders (top 10, 180d window) | 10.0 | 5,483 | 54,830 | 178 | 0.32% | $13,707.5 | $11,025 | $-2,682.5 | -19.6% | $-2,682.5 |
| Calendar Year Top-5 | 5.0 | 5,483 | 27,415 | 148 | 0.54% | $6,853.75 | $5,550 | $-1,303.75 | -19.0% | $-1,322.5 |
| Baseline: All 120 Distinct Boxes | 120.0 | 5,483 | 657,960 | 3,934 | 0.60% | $164,490 | $147,525 | $-16,965 | -10.3% | $-16,965 |
| Consensus Panel | 5.0 | 5,483 | 27,415 | 181 | 0.66% | $6,853.75 | $6,937.5 | $83.75 | 1.2% | $-442.5 |
| Night Doubles Machine [profit·double·8·Night] | 8.0 | 1,827 | 14,616 | 31 | 0.21% | $3,654 | $2,325 | $-1,329 | -36.4% | $-1,424 |
Window summary.
3 of 20 strategies finished positive in this window.
Top: Fixed Five Families +$1171.25 · Followed-By (empirical top 5) +$608.75 · Consensus Panel +$83.75
Performance matrix — net by trailing window (all strategies)
Each cell is a strategy's net over the trailing calendar window, from the full-archive run — green means the strategy made money in that window, red means it lost. The last column counts how many of the last 12 active months were profitable.
| Strategy | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 2Y | 3Y | All time | Positive months (12) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed Five Families | -$70 | +$189 | +$444 | +$553 | +$1,134 | +$1,486 | +$106 | 9/12 |
| Followed-By (empirical top 5) | +$5 | +$39 | +$31 | -$10 | +$459 | +$661 | -$683 | 5/12 |
| Followed-By Chain (book) | -$37 | -$43 | -$93 | -$151 | -$165 | -$401 | -$782 | 4/12 |
| Cici's Rules Engine | -$22 | -$131 | -$220 | -$127 | -$209 | +$258 | -$1,701 | 3/12 |
| Consensus Panel | -$33 | +$39 | +$181 | +$290 | +$234 | -$14 | -$1,769 | 8/12 |
| Calendar Year Top-5 | -$70 | -$149 | -$231 | -$48 | -$179 | -$651 | -$1,806 | 5/12 |
| Overdue 10 (gap vs expectation) | +$160 | -$35 | -$425 | -$658 | -$1,033 | -$2,240 | -$3,425 | 3/12 |
| Profit Leaders (top 10, 90d window) | -$28 | -$260 | -$125 | -$170 | -$508 | -$1,453 | -$3,425 | 5/12 |
| Hot Families (top 10) | -$140 | +$3 | +$100 | +$205 | +$205 | -$478 | -$3,650 | 6/12 |
| 789 Top 10 (of the 51) | -$65 | +$78 | +$213 | +$355 | -$133 | -$403 | -$4,888 | 4/12 |
| Profit Leaders (top 10, 180d window) | -$65 | -$410 | -$538 | -$808 | -$545 | -$1,190 | -$4,963 | 3/12 |
| Cold/Due Families (bottom 10) | +$160 | -$73 | -$163 | +$393 | +$355 | -$1,040 | -$5,188 | 7/12 |
| Profit Persisters (top 18, 2y window) | -$87 | -$311 | -$428 | -$396 | -$636 | -$1,790 | -$6,570 | 5/12 |
| Hot doubles (top 18) | +$138 | +$365 | -$53 | -$546 | -$1,649 | -$2,240 | -$7,358 | 3/12 |
| Profit Persisters (top 18, 1y window) | -$87 | +$215 | +$23 | +$54 | -$749 | -$815 | -$9,083 | 5/12 |
| Fixed 40 Doubles (Frozen 2026 List) | +$1,165 | +$2,035 | +$3,175 | +$3,745 | +$1,870 | -$260 | -$12,350 | 9/12 |
| 789 Portfolio (51 fixed) | +$254 | +$545 | +$176 | +$1,053 | -$533 | -$1,183 | -$15,521 | 7/12 |
| Fixed 137 (Frozen 2025-26 List) | -$21 | +$387 | +$834 | +$1,511 | +$1,245 | -$2,874 | -$39,936 | 9/12 |
| Baseline: All 120 Distinct Boxes | -$668 | -$1,470 | -$2,363 | -$4,515 | -$7,028 | -$9,780 | -$41,250 | 0/12 |
What "plays" means. One play = one $0.25 bet on one boxed family for one drawing.
Total plays = families played per drawing × drawings — e.g. a strategy that plays
5 families every drawing across
5,483 drawings accumulates
27,415 plays.
Every single play is settled against an actual archived drawing, and every hit is listed with its date in each
strategy's detail below.